Sunday, April 24, 2011

The Second Shutdown 40: #56 – Andy Dalton, QB, TCU

With the 2010 NFL season in the books, the draft edging ever closer (and a lockout battle now headed to the courts) it's time to turn our eyes to the pre-draft evaluation process. We've already done scouting reports of the top 40 players on our board, and you can read all the details on the first Shutdown 40 here. For the second Shutdown 40, players 41-80, we have the advantage of combine performances and that much more evaluation material.

Over the next few weeks, we'll also be adding Pro Day data when relevant. But we're always going mostly on game tape; the proper evaluation formula seems to be about 80 percent tape, 20 percent Senior Bowl/combine/Pro Day. If you see what you expect in drills, you go back to the tape to confirm. If what you see in drills surprises you in a positive or negative sense, you go back to the tape to catch where the anomalies may be.

We continue the second Shutdown 40 with TCU quarterback Andy Dalton. The winner of the 2010 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Award, Dalton may be the only quarterback in NCAA history to win three Most Valuable Awards in four bowl games ? he's certainly on a very short list. It is his tendency to "win" games and come up trumps in key situations that has some draft prognosticators (and apparently, some NFL talent evaluators), giving him close to a first-round grade. Those who are impressed by the "quarterback wins" stat love Dalton's 42-7 record.

What people may not necessarily notice when taking these things into account is that Dalton benefitted heavily from one of the best defenses in college football and a spread offense that laid his reads out for him fairly easily. The numbers are notable, but the wins come in context. Still, the raw�stats are pretty serious ? he threw 812 completions in 1,317 attempts (a 61.7 completion percentage) for 10,314 yards, 71 touchdowns and 31 interceptions. The 6-foot-2, 215-pound Dalton also ran 413 times for 1,611 yards (a 3.9 yards per carry average) and 22 touchdowns.

He may be the King of the Intangibles, but how well does that show up on tape? And how will those intangibles look at the NFL level?

Pros: The "intangibles" argument is legitimate with Dalton ? he is a tough, intelligent leader with great production and a winning spirit that will permeate his offense if he can find a way to succeed in the NFL. Showed statistical improvement each season at TCU. Smart enough to call off at the line ? he's more than your typical "check with me" thrower. Doesn't have any obvious mechanical flaws, though lack of arm strength will have him heaving longer throws. Good when asked to get touch and distance on fades and jump balls. Above-average feel for play action for a quarterback who has spent so much time in shotgun.

Cons: Most of Dalton's college throws came in a traditional spread offense, not the hybrid stuff you see in the NFL all the time these days. He's used to taking three-step drops out of shotgun. Rocking back, and making simple-route bailout throws out of multiple clearing and crossing routes designed to split defenses to their breaking points. As a result, what you do not often see from Dalton are the stick throws of 15-25 yards that will allow certain spread quarterbacks (best recent example: Blaine Gabbert; Joe Flacco and Drew Brees are other examples) to transcend their college offenses.

Dalton does not possess the intermediate velocity to make those throws even in an offense that specializes in them, and with the receivers to make them happen. During Senior Bowl week, he had a real problem keeping longer passes on track when the wind kicked up. Tends to "shotput" longer throws, leading to further questions about his basic arm strength. Ran single-read most of the time and will need to learn more about progressions at the next level. Has a good arc on most of his throws, but the problem is that the passes that should be on a line tend to shoot up as well.��

Conclusion: Dalton will have to do a lot to pass the eye test when it comes to absolute, tangible NFL skills. His work with Jerry Rhome since the 2011 Rose Bowl, and the fact that he hasn't taken a shotgun snap since�that game�? working under center exclusively ? says a lot about his work ethic and understanding of what must be done if he is ever to succeed as a professional. There are enough NFL talent evaluators enamored with the concept of quarterback wins and overall character to see Dalton as a valuable prospect for the reasons that don't show up on game tape, but teams doing due diligence on him will find things to worry about ? major fundamental issues that generally take years to correct if they're corrected at all. If Andy Dalton is to get past those obstacles, he'll need every bit of those intangibles everyone keeps talking about. Right now, he looks a lot like a fringe prospect with a limited palette who could find some traction in an abbreviated West Coast offense.

NFL Comparison: Colt McCoy, Cleveland Browns

More Second Shutdown 40
#41 ? Justin Houston, OLB, Georgia | #42 ? Muhammad Wilkerson, DT/DE, Temple | #43 ? Aaron Williams, DB, Texas | #44 ? Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech | #45 ? Rahim Moore, FS, UCLA | #46 ? Martez Wilson, ILB, Illinois | #47 ? D.J. Williams, TE, Arkansas | #48 -- Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina | #49 ? Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy | #50 ? Jabbal Sheard, DE, Pitt | #51 ? Christian Ballard, DE, Iowa | #52 ? Brooks Reed, DE/OLB, Arizona | #53 ? Randall Cobb, WR, Kentucky | #54 -- Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada | #55 ? Sam Acho, OLB/DE, Texas

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/The-Second-Shutdown-40-56-Andy-Dalton-QB-T?urn=nfl-wp879

Kellen Clemens Kerry Collins Todd Collins Brodie Croyle

Friday, April 22, 2011

NFL fans say they’ll do more yard work if there’s no football in fall

A recent poll commissioned by Sports Illustrated found that nearly half of NFL fans say they'll be less interested in the sport if games are canceled and over 60 percent would watch games with replacement players.

Among the other findings in the survey, which appears in this week's issue of SI:

? Half ?f NFL fans (47.5%) ??? th?? would watch more non-sports TV ?n? 61.2 percent would watch more ?f ?th?r televised sports without th? NFL season. Fans would also spend more time surfing th? internet (56.1%), w?th significant others (45.1%), doing yard work/chores (43.6%), playing video games (33.5%) and ?t church (13%).

? What would fans miss most if the season is disrupted? 41.8% said watching with friends and family and 40.7% said following a team. Only 5.2% said fantasy football is what they would most miss and only 1.3% said betting on games.

Nothing too earth shattering in those numbers, other than the fact that mowing the lawn and going for a picnic with your girlfriend generated the same interest. If the poll shows anything, it's that fans understand that they may not have football to watch this fall and are planning accordingly. I get the impression that the NFL thinks people will curl in the fetal position without football this fall, but these numbers suggest folks will be just fine without it.

Of course they will. They're going to have no other choice. That's why I've found all the talk about what television networks will use to fill their Sunday programming overestimates the dependence people have on football. I sit inside and watch the NFL on Sunday because that's when it's on TV. If it's not on, I don't plan on sitting on the couch for nine straight hours and filling the time with other shows. A Pac-12 football game isn't the NFL. I don't watch it on Saturday, so why am I going to watch it on Sunday? What do you do in August when football isn't on? What do you do in February? We adapt. It won't be fun but we'll manage.

All that being said, I don't want to overstate these numbers, either. I believe the poll. I'm sure 44 percent of people think they won't care as much about the NFL if there's a lockout. But when it comes down to it and football returns, are they really going to stay away? People answer poll questions the way they think they should, even though deep down they know that all they're doing is issuing a minor protest through a pollster. It's like asking a liberal if they'll be less likely to vote for Obama because he went back on his Guantanamo Bay promise. Sure, it sounds good to say "yes," but what are they going to do in November 2012? Vote for Newt Gingrich?

I doubt 44 percent of people are going to do more chores on Sunday. If those 13 percent of folks wanted to go to church, they'd already be going to church.

It's easy to take a stand when it's all theoretical.

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Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/NFL-fans-say-they-ll-do-more-yard-work-if-there-?urn=nfl-wp791

C.J. Spiller Darren Sproles LaRod Stephens-Howling Jonathan Stewart

Gruden reflects on the 2011 quarterback class

His critical eye may frighten some of the quarterbacks of the 2011 draft class,�but former NFL coach and current ESPN broadcaster Jon Gruden has as much intel on "these guys" (to use his vernacular) as anyone analyzing them pre-draft. In preparation for his QB Camp shows with Auburn's Cam Newton, Missouri's Blaine Gabbert, Washington's Jake Locker, Arkansas' Ryan Mallett and TCU's Andy Dalton, Gruden crunched a bunch of game tape and then put those kids under the microscope. On a Tuesday media conference call, Gruden gave his grades on the QB Camp Five. And for a guy who was infamous for being brutal with young quarterbacks when he was a coach, Gruden certainly found enough to like about this group.

Gabbert: "I do think Blaine Gabbert is a Top 10 pick.� All you have to do is see the ball come out of his hand.� He's got a very quick, strong arm, prototype size.� He's over 6'4", 235 pounds, a finance major, so you know he has intelligence.� He has speed.� I mean, Gabbert ran very well at the combine.� He's elusive back there.� His scrambling and play making ability I think will be very enticing.� Once again, here's a junior quarterback that comes from a very unique, different style of spread offense at Missouri where he's been in the no?back set, and the shotgun predominantly.� But I think his physical talents are very noticeable to everybody."

Newton: "Cam Newton with 14 career starts, the thing that impressed me, not only his physical attributes and his size, but his charisma.� I think his eagerness to learn and prove that he can adapt to a pro style on offense.� He showed very good retention to me in the meetings and the material that we covered.�I just like the look in his eyes, the eagerness and feeling that he has a lot to prove to everybody including himself.� I think Newton impressed me the most in that regard.�

"This is not a typical pro-style attack.� Cam Newton is a tailback at times playing with a direct snap at Auburn.� He's carrying the football much like Cadillac Williams did, and Bo Jackson did on power running plays.� But it's a direct snap with some underneath misdirection.� When they do throw the ball, a lot of it is off the play action.� But I have seen him be very accurate.� If you watch the South�Carolina game late in the season to win the SEC Championship, he makes a couple of beautiful deep throws against Oregon in the National Championship game.� I think he can make the throws.� I think it's a matter of him learning and getting conditioned to what the coach wants him to do, and he can do it.� This guy has tremendous ability.�

"It's not his fault that they don't huddle.� This is a no?huddle offense.� I don't believe Auburn ever huddles.� I saw them live against Oregon and never saw them get in the huddle.� A lot of their signals come from the sideline.� As a matter of fact, every one of them does.� That is just the way the Tigers operate.� Cam Newton will learn quickly what to call formations, what to call shifts, what to call motions.� That is something that I learned.� What he's got to get ready for right away is learning the terminology and how to spit these plays out clearly, quickly, and get the team up to the line of scrimmage where he has time to deal."

Locker: "Well, Jake Locker said what he was going to do, and he did what he said he was going to do.� He said he was coming back for his senior year.� He said he wanted to take Washington to a bowl game, and I admire that about him.�He could have walked away from the Husky program and potentially been the number one pick a year ago according to a lot of analysts.� But he wanted to do what he said he was going to do, and that is a trait that I really admire.�

"This is one tough guy.� I mean, Jake Locker has played for two head coaches.� He had to endure an 0?12 season.� This guy took a lot of punishment.� The whole offense was built around No. 10.� From a running standpoint, from a passing standpoint, this guy was involved significantly on every snap for the Huskies.� He does have to improve his accuracy.� But I think when you're hit a lot and asked to do as much as Locker's been asked to do, sometimes your fundamentals wane a little bit.� They disappear in key situations.� He does have a good, strong arm.� He's an outstanding athlete.� He's got very good elusiveness and straight line speed with some power, and I think he loves football.� I think there is a real passionate fire inside this guy that somebody's going to capture.� He would be a fun guy to coach.� I know that."

(On Locker's accuracy issues, and whether that can be improved at the NFL level): "Accuracy can be improved.� Sometimes it's because of your fundamentals.� Sometimes you're out of rhythm, you're in the shotgun, you're underneath the center.� Sometimes you're under duress and out of rhythm.� Sometimes you're hurrying, you're playing too fast.� You're anticipating congestion around you when maybe there isn't.�

"I just think he needs to go back and reestablish his fundamentals and work hard at that.� He'll get the right position coach that's going to help him do that.� But accuracy sometimes can be terminal.� Sometimes you can't cure that.� I think that is a big concern with Jake Locker, because he does miss some throws.� But if you pick up the Southern Cal film from this year, if you pick up the Oregon State film from this year, you can see what this guy's capable of doing.� He can be a one?man wrecking machine.� There is a brilliant talent inside this body he's got.� It's a matter of regaining his fundamentals, confidence and composure a little bit, and he'll be fine."�

Mallett: "I think he does get it.� He comes from a unique background.� His mom and dad were teachers and coaches.� Football is very important to him.� The thing I really liked about Ryan Mallett was his background playing under Bobby Petrino at Arkansas.� And I know Coach Petrino well enough to know that he coaches quarterbacks hard, very demanding.� If you watch Mallett play, he's in a lot of pro style situations, underneath the center, in the shotgun, audibling, check?with?me's.� They do a lot of good things on offense at Arkansas.� Ryan Mallett can draw protections, blocking schemes, and he does have a beautiful throwing motion that I know a lot of guys in the league are excited about.� He can really hum it.�

"So he has that ability, I think, to throw the football from a lot of different areas.� In the pocket he can get it out of his hand with a lot of velocity in a hurry.� And I think he's got a very good football aptitude being in Coach Petrino's attack for the last couple of years."

(On the drug rumors): "I can't comment on any of that because I'm not aware of that.� That's the best way I can put it right now.� But obviously that's a red flag if that's the truth."�

Dalton: "I think Andy Dalton can play in any offense.� I think when you become a pro quarterback and play in the National Football League, as the hash marks change, the field becomes more available.� When you're on a college hash mark and you're throwing the ball to the wide side of the field, that's almost an impossible task for anyone.�

"So I think putting the ball in the middle of the field favors Andy Dalton.� I've seen him be an accurate passer down the field.� I've seen him manage a high?volume offense with great success at TCU.� He's got four years of production.� And if you look at Texas Christian football, who would have thought they'd be 13?0 and Rose Bowl champions?�

"I really think Andy Dalton can fit any offense.� But the more you put on him above the neck mentally to make decisions and play the game with his heady nature, I think the better Andy Dalton's going to be.� He's an outstanding, well?versed quarterback that I think will fit a lot of schemes."

And to those who wonder where Gruden gets off talking about draftable quarterbacks, given his own poor record of quarterback development with the Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (former Bucs quarterback Shaun King is among the unimpressed), Gruden has a surprise: He agrees with you … to a point.

"I miss working with the quarterbacks.� And I agree with Shaun.� I wasn't totally successful in developing all the young quarterbacks.� Although Bobby Hoying and Ty Detmer did okay, and Chris Simms helped us win a division title.� But I did fail miserably in developing Shaun King, and I'm sorry he'll miss our show."

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Gruden-reflects-on-the-2011-quarterback-class?urn=nfl-wp1035

LaDainian Tomlinson Ryan Torain Keith Toston Michael Turner