We have the draw, so now we can consider which players to back for the title ? if we are allowed to have a bet, that is
Much is made of the draw in tennis. And no doubt it matters for players who want to progress as deep into a tournament as their talent or wallet allows. Avoiding a big name early on clearly helps if you're a wildcard with a three-night booking at a nearby fleapit.
But, when it comes to winning the title, the draw hardly matters at all. If Andy Murray is to win at Flushing Meadows ? as at every major tournament ? he will in all probability have to beat Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals, then either Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer in the final.
However you look at it, the winner will probably be either of the two greatest players to play the game ? Nadal or Federer ? or someone who has beaten two of the greatest players to play the game ? which means Djokovic or Murray.
It is hard to think of an era when it has been tougher to win a grand-slam title. Right now, tennis is at an unprecedented level of excellence in the top three, plus one. If Murray can come though here to win a slam final at his fourth attempt, he will be able to put himself at least in the same ballpark as the other three. And to establish that standing, he will need to do it again.
It's fine getting to a semi-final, or even winning one. But that is not what great players aspire to.
What are the odds? Can't say
The US Open, like all tournaments, is paranoid about betting. There to greet us at the venue this week was a printed reminder from the tournament director Jim Curley that "participation in or aiding and abetting, directly or indirectly, any form of gambling or betting involving tennis is strictly prohibited". Get found out, and you're out, says Jim. Forever. And that's just the journalists. (Clearly no relation to Barney Curley, then.)
We must tread lightly, therefore, in discussing the chances of Murray winning his first major. They are, well, very good ? for the following reasons:
In the last couple of games before he quit with a sore shoulder against Murray in the Cincinnati final last Sunday, Djokovic was getting his first serve in at 82 miles an hour ? slower than Sharapova was hitting her second serve in the women's final that followed. Even if he is fit to play, he could be seriously de-powered in one of the strongest parts of his game.
Rafael Nadal doesn't look happy. He burnt two fingers on his right hand in a bizarre collision with a hotplate in a local restaurant, which doesn't say a lot for his eyesight or concentration. He's also got a sore foot ? and not the one that nearly put him out of the game six years ago, but the one he has been nursing since Wimbledon.
Tomas Berdych, who has the talent but not the steel, was playing well until his right shoulder also went, against Djokovic ? even though he'd led 5-3 before quitting. So don't count on him causing an upset.
Roger Federer emerged in one piece ? but he folded in his quarter-final against Berdych. He once could get out of trouble without seeming to try; now he doesn't always get out of trouble.
So, my money (if I were allowed a wager) would be on ? Murray.
An Indian summer ? not
Somdev Devvarman, who stands between Murray and the second round, says tennis in India is still way behind cricket in popularity ? although he may not have taken a sounding on that since the recent series in England.
"In India, the tennis situation is improving," he said after the draw on Thursday. "The federation is looking for ways to bring it to more districts but, of course, it is very difficult when there is so much interest in cricket. I followed the series in England. It's not been a great summer. As the No1 nation, it was not one of our best performances; we were blown apart, really. I was very disappointed that Sachin [Tendulkar] didn't get his hundredth hundred. That would have been very special. There weren't many silver linings for us."
And, with all due respect, he is unlikely to provide any when he plays Murray.
"I can't do anything about the draw," he said. "You get what you get, but it's going to be very tough. I am playing okay. I lost a close match to [Marcos] Baghdatis in [Washington] DC. I haven't played too much recently but I feel I'm hitting the ball OK."
Now that's a call to arms.
Quakecane or hurriquake?
Recycled joke of the week: That was no hurricane; it was Serena Williams jumping up and down when she found out she'd been seeded 28th.
And what are the odds of a quake and a hurricane in New York in the same week? Probably, the same as Isner playing Mahut one more time ? and we don't want to go there again.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/aug/26/us-open-2011
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