Andy Robinson's men have the desperate need for a win that could add to Martin Johnson's furrows
The Red Hot Chilli Pipers are in Auckland, armed with their bagpipes, shops in the city have sold more kilts this week than they would expect to in a year, there has been a run on blue face paint and local politicians of Scottish descent have been proclaiming how Saturday will be anti-England day.
Scotland will need all the support they can get. It is not just a matter for them of defeating England but matching them for bonus points. A winning margin of eight points would do it, as long as they do not concede four tries and score fewer, but that is something they have not achieved against their oldest rivals since 1986.
Martin Johnson's eyebrows are often furrowed, but they were doing the fandango when he heard the team picked by Scotland. He had expected Andy Robinson, his erstwhile confrere, to go for size, not pace. He was still mystified a few hours later.
Robinson said his selection had nothing to do with Scotland needing more than a simple victory to make it into the quarter-finals, but as he pored over footage of England's three games
, as well as their warm-ups last month, two games may have stood out.
The first was Wales at Twickenham, a game England were comfortably in control of until the Welsh started to enjoy a spell in possession and lifted the pace of the game. They played with width and England started to concede penalties, mostly at the breakdown.
The more the game broke up and become unstructured, the less comfortable England looked. It was the same in the opening half against Georgia, opponents expected to offer only the mildest inconvenience.
The Georgians came at England who found themselves sucked into the mayhem. At one point the penalty count was 9-1 against them, and had Georgia kicked the penalties they would probably have gone into the break ahead.
Robinson looks to have opted for the chaos theory. Start with a scurry and a flurry and hurry England into making mistakes and giving away penalties. Form may be with Johnson's men but so it was with Australia in the 2007 quarter-final when the Wallabies failed to smell danger.
Scotland have to aim high while England can aim low, needing just a bonus point to top the group. That said, Scotland will have the edge of needing to win: they are the ones who will be puffed by desperation and pumped by a fear-fuelled adrenaline.
England are not the darlings of this tournament, never mind Auckland. A lack of concern for convention and rules on and off the field, flaky numbers on the backs of jerseys, ball-tampering and a willingness to give away penalties rather than risk a breach of their try-line are symptomatic of the driven singlemindedness that has taken them far in the last two World Cups. Every little edge helps.
England like to be in their comfort zone. They are highly organised, efficient rather than proficient, and revel in structure. Robinson, who knows the English psyche as well as anyone, will have been putting his nationality and background to full use.
Expect the Scots to have a few tricks in the scrums and lineouts, but it will be at the breakdown where they will look to cause maximum damage, getting there quickly and forcing England to infringe. They will revel in their status as underdogs. England have the class but will they have the composure?
The final match of the group stage is another Six Nations affair. Ireland face Italy in Dunedin and from being the underdogs against Australia, they will be fancied to win and finish at the top of their group.
If Italy lose, it will be Nick Mallett's last match in charge of the Azzurri. His players have spoken of their sadness at the decision not to renew the South African's contract and they will not mind the forward warfare that proved successful for the Irish against Australia.
It is on this match that the axis of the knockout stage will rotate. An Irish victory will leave a Tri-Nations route to the final on one side and a Six Nations trail on the other. Ireland have produced two big performances this year, against England in March and Australia a couple of weeks ago.
Otherwise they have veered between the average, as in Rome in February when they secured victory with a late kick, and the poor, as in their August defeats by France and England. Even below their best, they should have too much for an Italy side that laboured against the United States on Tuesday.
Italy were not comfortable having to take the initiative then. That will not be their problem on Sunday, and while they will front up upfront, neither their defence nor their attack out wide looks resourceful enough to tax Ireland.
Australia and New Zealand will have training runs, Argentina will know in advance what they have to do against Georgia but cannot take a try bonus point for granted, while Wales will not play with the abandon against Fiji they did in Nantes in 2007 when they lost and crashed out of the tournament at the group stage.
Then there is France. They face Tonga in Wellington on Saturday and ordinarily they should win handsomely, but Les Bleus are not a model of contentment. Word is the players have taken charge, which is why Morgan Parra is at outside-half rather than the reportedly unpopular Fran�ois Trinh-Duc.
France seem to sum up this World Cup ? unpredictable. This is, for three of the four groups, knockout rugby. It is about who keeps their nerve, who confounds the analysts, who works out the referee and who does not trust in the formbook. The minnows are on their way home and the sharks are circling.
? This is an extract from The Breakdown email, which will be launched every weekday throughout the Rugby World Cup. To subscribe for free click here.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2011/sep/30/rugby-world-cup-andy-robinson-scotland
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