The latest news and best bets in our daily horse racing blog plus our tipping competition
5.35pm Post mortem
Chris Cook: Shirley Teasdale will probably reflect that her effort on Blown It was not one of her more inspired rides in today's opener at Wolverhampton. The horse travelled well into the straight, looking the most likely winner, but she directed it inside for a gap that turned out not to exist when it seemed easier to plough straight ahead. It would have to be admitted that the horse did not seem to pick up thereafter and he would probably not have won in any case.
I was looking in the wrong place with Mordin's system for it was at Southwell that Leonna Mayor scored on Pipers Piping (4-1). Mayor has a 14% strike-rate on the all-weather this year.
The market movers recorded here at lunchtime proved significant, as Fantino held on by a nose at 8-1, despite having finished stone last on his previous start. Dickie Le Davoir also outran his odds to be second at 8-1.
The Midnight Club was a disappointing third at odds-on over at Clonmel and we'll have a report on the site a little later.
1.30pm Lunchtime update: Talking Horses moves the markets
Chris Cook: Maybe punters are becoming more open-minded. Blown It (1.50) is among William Hill's market movers this morning, Shirley Teasdale or no Shirley Teasdale, being cut to 2-1 from 11-4. Star Links (3.50) is also fancied, despite the burden of being tipped on Talking Horses, and is 3-1 from 7-2.
Among those being backed at bigger prices, Fantino (4.20) is 10-1 from 14s, having his second start since joining Pat Murphy from John Mackie. He was last of eight round this track last time.
A more significant mover may be at Southwell, where Dickie Le Davoir (4.00) is 11-2 from 10-1 last night. Trained by Richard Guest, he runs on Fibresand for the first time since winning a claimer on 3 January, having since been stuffed three times on Polytrack.
Stat of the day, by Paul Jones
If you don't fancy the short odds about Hurricane Fly for the Stan James Champion Hurdle and are looking for an alternative, I would argue that the single strongest trend for any the four big championship races at the Cheltenham Festival is that 24 of the last 28 winners of the Champion Hurdle also won on their previous start. Compare that to the Gold Cup, Champion Chase and World Hurdle over the same period of time where last-time-out winners went on to win those championship races 18, 17 and 12 times respectively. Just to hammer this point home further still, last-time-out winners have provided the forecast on more occasions than not in the Champion Hurdle over the last 21 runnings and the 2011 result went one place further still with the 1-2-3 of Hurricane Fly, Peddlers Cross and Oscar Whisky all successful last time out. Maybe Hurricane Fly to beat another last-time-out winner in a forecast could be the way to go?
Paul Jones is author of the Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Guide
Today's best bets, by Chris Cook
To nobody's great surprise, Wincanton was frozen off this morning after overnight temperatures of -4.5C. It was said to still be -2C there at around 8am.
That means no jumps racing in Britain today and frankly it would be a surprise if this was the last such day in the next week or so. There are inspections planned this afternoon at Catterick and Chepstow, the two tracks scheduled to stage turf racing tomorrow and we will, of course, report what happens as soon as we know.
There is jump racing today in Ireland at Clonmel and the card is not without significance as The Midnight Club, a 25-1 shot for the Grand National, is due to line up against four rivals in the 3.40pm chase. Now 11, he started favourite for last year's National but finished a distant sixth. He has failed to inspire in two runs since then but Ruby Walsh is back in the saddle this time.
An old system of Nick Mordin's is being put to the test at Wolverhampton today. Based on the terrible chauvinism of most punters, he reasoned that horses ridden by female jockeys were usually a reliable source of value when punters got over themselves enough to make them favourite. I remember him saying that it was the only one of his systems where the results seemed to remain constant over time and his margin wasn't wiped out by the market getting smarter.
That would be the thick end of 20 years ago, of course, and it may be that Hayley Turner and Nina Carberry have done much to educate everybody. Or it may be that many punters regard them as exceptions to the general rule.
Shirley Teasdale actually has the best course record of the inexperienced apprentices in the opener today, having won twice from eight rides here. She's on Blown It (1.50), who has been in good form round here over the winter and carries a penalty for last week's success under Joe Fanning. The pace may not be as sound this time but he has another furlong to work his way into contention.
In the second race, Laura Barry gets another chance on Haadeeth (2.20) after giving him a good ride at Kempton recently, the pair being beaten by half a length at 12-1. Richard Fahey's five-year-old scored over this course and distance in October and is just 7lb higher.
Our competition races today will have you cursing us for our cruelty but do please bear in mind that our choice was limited. My Mate Les (3.20) is somewhat less than a confident selection but he went close here two runs ago and a subsequent defeat at Kempton may not mean much in the context of this race.
Star Links (3.50) is quite an interesting 7-2 shot, having done most of his racing in Ireland. He ran on to be a close third round here on his only previous British start in November and is just 2lb higher.
Course form is usually some sort of help at Southwell but only Cheery Cat has yet to score around here from the field for the six-furlong handicap. Ridgeway Hawk (4.00) can follow up last week's success under a penalty.
Tipping competition, day four
Ocean Legend (9-1) sent millreef to the top of the leaderboard yesterday, while Et Maintenant (17-2) helped orso into third place. It's tight at the top and sandiuk is not far behind, having paired Ocean Legend with Emerald Royal (9-2).
Today, we'd like your tips, please, for these races: 3.20 Wolverhampton, 3.50 Wolverhampton, 4.00 Southwell.
This week's prize is a pack of the new Top Trumps-style cards featuring chasers and hurdlers, as described at the top of the page. If you don't win, you can buy a pack here.
As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of �1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers. If you have not joined in so far this week, you are welcome to do so today, but you will start on -9.
In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.
For terms and conditions click here.
Good luck!
Standings after day three
millreef +16
elbonjourno +14.50
orso +14.50
Moscow08 +13.50
sandiuk +12
Sportingchad +9.50
erifder +8
mmmdanish +8
fatdeano +8
shears39 +7.50
tom1977 +6
Dangalf +6
SussexRH +6
Mulldog +6
Shrewdette +5.50
kenty58 +5
GForce1 +5
chiefhk +3.50
wiggy12 +3.50
Mai11 +3.50
Ellandback +3.50
unfaircomment +3.50
William36 +3.50
TL127 +2
MauriceNL +1
Ormrod76 +1
natwho +0.50
VolleVlug +0.50
Lameduck +0.50
kingklynch +0.50
moidadem -0.50
jaygee1 -0.50
MrWinnersSonInLaw -0.50
goofs -1.50
ToffeeDan1 -1.50
sangfroid -1.50
slackdad38 -2
londonpatrick -2
noodlearms -3.50
Lindsey6677 -3.50
JahLion -3.50
carl31 -3.50
genesismama57 -3.50
Viejo -4.50
scandalous -5
chanleyman -5
Thewrongtree -5
factormax -6
diegoisgod -6
curlycov -6
Fixxxer -6
melonk -6
aledrhyswhyn -6
15244 -6
manni -6
xwireman -9
BearRides -9
twig28 -9
waltersobchak -9
Copshaw -9
cerises -9
SmokingGun1 -9
tanias -9
Neltrader1 -9
WalthamstowLad -9
chipsolderer -9
MISTERCHESTER -9
NRJITFC -9
rankingdread -9
chris1623 -9
23skidoo -9
spiller -9
Steve084 -9
lonewolfmcquaid -9
suckzinclee -9
BenFConroy -9
glavintoby -9
Blitzwing -9
Harrytheactor -9
Click here for all the day's racecards, form, stats and results.
And post your tips or racing-related comments below.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2012/feb/02/live-racing-thursday-february-2-2012
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