Thursday, October 27, 2011

MLS wildcards: Will Brek Shea or Thierry Henry reach the last eight? | Ken Gude

FC Dallas, New York Red Bulls, Colorado Rapids and Columbus Crew in sudden death shoot-outs to reach conference semi-finals

The MLS Playoffs kick off this week with the two knock-out wild card matchups featuring FC Dallas versus the star-studded New York Red Bulls on Wednesday and defending MLS Cup Champion Colorado Rapids hosting the Columbus Crew on Thursday. Playoffs may be a particularly American way to determine the ultimate MLS winner ? tacking on a knock-out Cup competition onto the end of a traditional balanced season schedule ? but the added drama of elimination games and the guarantee of a final match to decide the champion has worked well for MLS and frankly the league would be out of step in the US sports landscape without it.

The LA Galaxy, who won the Supporters Shield as the club that accumulated the most points over the 34-game, home and away season, are the favorites, led by Captain America (though not actually the captain of the U.S. national team for some reason) Landon Donovan and David Beckham in what may be his MLS swan song. But many other teams are capable of winning in this format and with the World Series nearing its conclusion, the NBA locked out, the NFL in mid-season, and the NHL just getting going, MLS will have a greater share of the pro-sports spotlight than perhaps at any other time in its 16-year history.

MLS Playoff Format

The system to determine the winner of the MLS Cup has gone through so many changes in recent years, it's harder to keep track of than the Brazilian or Argentine leagues (without the alleged corruption). The changes have mostly been implemented to try and thread the needle between giving enough of an advantage to the teams that do the best in the regular season and scheduling constraints that eliminate the long series that give that advantage. So far the results have not been very good as the team with the lowest seed entering the playoffs (with the worst record of the qualifying teams) has won the MLS Cup more often than the team with the highest seed.

The field expanded to 10 teams from 8 that had qualified in previous years, with the top six getting straight into the quarterfinals (confusingly called the Conference Semifinals) and the added ripple of creating a play-in contest among the four qualifying teams with the fewest points for the last spots.

The Conference Semifinals will feature a home and away, aggregate goals knock-out round, with the important distinction from most European competitions in that there is no away goals tiebreaker. If both the teams are level after the two legs, a 30-minute extra time session is played and if the teams are still tied they go to penalties. The play-in winner with the lowest number of points during the regular season will play the Galaxy ? part of the effort to give the higher seeds a bigger advantage.

The next round reverts to a single elimination game at the home stadium of the higher seed and the final is also a single game slated for November 20 at the Home Depot Center ? the home of the LA Galaxy, another thing working in their favor this year.

Will this be the last chance to see Brek Shea in MLS?

The biggest reason to watch the first round of the playoffs is this guy. FC Dallas star Brek Shea has exploded onto the world soccer scene this year and it is quite possible that Dallas' last game this year will be Shea's last game in MLS, at least for a while. The 6' 3" left-wing can beat defenders with pace, power, or precision, and can finish with either foot. His quality has sparked wild dreams in the minds of US soccer fans that the 21-year-old can be the first genuine American star player.

Of course, Jozy Altidore and his five goals (including this rocket in the Europa League) for Dutch Eredivisie-topping side AZ Alkmar is trying to state his case. But Shea looks like a complete player and has the size and skill that will make managers' mouths water. The key for Shea is that if he does move to Europe, he goes into a situation that will enhance his development not stall it. That has been the main problem for other young American players making the jump from MLS to European leagues, Altidore included. There has been talk of Manchester United and Liverpool as potential destinations for Shea, but he would be much better served going to a team where he can play. The Bundesliga seems a good fit and I hear his new national team boss has pretty good connections over there.

FC Dallas vs. New York Red Bulls

The New York Red Bulls lineup features top international stars like Thierry Henry and Rafa Marquez, up and coming US national team players like Tim Ream and Juan Augedelo, and solid MLS performers like Dax McCarty and Luke Rodgers (who will probably be missing at this stage). This team simply did not expect to be stuck in the play-in round, they hoped this year would be the year they finally raised the MLS Cup for the first time. But they finished with a league record 16 draws in 34 matches and scraped into the playoffs in the season's final week.

Coming off their appearance in the MLS Cup final last season, FC Dallas also thought their campaign would prove more successful. But injuries, particularly to last year's MLS most-valuable-player David Ferreria who missed the last 28 games, and a congested schedule throughout the summer with national team commitments and CONCACAF Champions League games, hampered Dallas.
But now both Dallas and the Red Bulls can put the struggles of the season behind them and focus on the five game run to the final. Can the Red Bulls put it all together? Can Brek Shea's dominance make up for his injury-depleted squad? These teams have shown that on any given day they are good enough to beat any team in MLS. They can also be bad enough to lose to any team. Which ones show up on Wednesday is anyone's guess.

Colorado Rapids vs. Columbus Crew

Columbus travel to Colorado to take on the Rapids, and must be kicking themselves for losing their last game of the season to a non-playoff team and dropping out of one of the top six positions. Now Columbus have to face a Colorado team eager to defend their title buoyed by a strong home record (only two home losses all year) including a 2-0 victory over the Crew in August. The Rapids also knocked the Crew out of the playoffs last season, so it would appear this matchup strongly favors Colorado.
But this won't be a walkover as the Rapids are struggling to hit the heights of last season with a faltering strike partnership and a midfield hit by injuries. Omar Cummings and Connor Casey formed the most fearsome strike duo last season, but Casey is out with a torn Achilles tendon and Cummings has simply not found the form that saw him terrorize MLS defenses a year ago. Midfield stalwart Pablo Mastroeni may also miss out because of the lingering effects of a concussion.
Colorado and Columbus look like teams that should be in this position ? stumbling to the finish with either a lack of form or a squad beset by injuries, or both ? exactly the kind of dogfight that makes knock-out competition so great.

This week's playoff schedule at a glance

Wild Card matches
Wednesday, October 26
FC Dallas vs. New York Red Bulls

Thursday, October 27
Colorado vs.Columbus

Conference semi-finals 1st legs
Saturday, October 29, 2011
TBD vs. Sporting KC
Real Salt Lake vs. Seattle

Sunday, October 30, 2011
TBD vs.Los Angeles
Philadelphia vs. Houston


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Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2011/oct/26/brek-shea-thierry-henry-mls-wildcard

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