Australia look to end New Zealand's domination, England's chances of success and the prospect of a United States appearance in the 2013 World Cup
1) Down to the Wire
The main impression conveyed by Monday's launch of the Gillette Four Nations series at Elland Road was that the Aussies mean business. Darren Lockyer and Tim Sheens, their outstanding captain and distinguished coach, were as polite and professional as ever, but there seemed a steelier edge to them than on some recent tours.
"We still have the Four Nations final from 2010 on our minds," said Sheens, referring to New Zealand's shock 16-12 win at Brisbane's Suncorp Stadium. That means the Kiwis hold international league's two major honours, having ended Australia's domination of the World Cup in Brisbane two years earlier, and two convincing victories over New Zealand already this season will mean nothing to the Kangaroos unless Lockyer lifts the trophy in Leeds on 19 November.
That should add a real edge to Friday's first game of the series, as the trans-Tasman rivalry is transported to Cheshire. Warrington's intimate Halliwell Jones Stadium will provide a rare chance for British rugby fans of either code to get up close and personal to such greats of the southern hemisphere as Lockyer and the Kiwi captain, Benji Marshall, and the physical collisions between such players as Keith Galloway and Fui Fui Moi Moi will not be for the fainthearted.
New Zealand also have a point to prove, having flopped on their past two trips to the northern hemisphere, failing to reach the final of the Four Nations in 2009 and enduring a 3-0 whitewash by Great Britain two years before that. Fears about a lack of experience in key positions seemed to be reinforced by the heavy defeat they suffered against Australia in Newcastle two weeks ago, but they can only be strengthened by the introduction of Kevin Locke at full-back and Kieran Foran at stand-off, and unsung mainstays of previous successes such as Simon Mannering and Jeremy Smith are all around to lay a platform for the brilliant Marshall ? complete with his new beard.
However one glaring weakness in the Kiwis' ability to adjust to English conditions emerged at Elland Road. It took Marshall, his coach, Stephen Kearney, and the long-serving media man Richard Becht five attempts to manoeuvre their four-wheel drive out of the car park, as the Rugby Football League's chairman Richard Lewis looked on with growing amusement. They may remember that if they return for the final three weeks on Saturday ? provided they survived the return trip to their Liverpool base along the M62.
2) Chase the ace? Stick or twist?
So what are England's chances of beating either Australia at Wembley on Saturday week, or the Kiwis in Hull seven days later, which they will have to do to have any chance of preventing a repeat of last year's final? Logically you'd say less than 50%, mainly because of the quality of the opposition and the stuttering warm-up win against France in Avignon last Friday didn't provide any reliable evidence to change those odds.
As some have already been discussing since the weekend, there were some good bits ? the first two minutes, the last 10 in the first half, and a couple more cracking tries after the break. But the majority of the performance was unconvincing and arguably left the coach, Steve McNamara, with more questions than answers, particularly surrounding the crucial half-back positions. Rangi Chase, the Maori who has been converted in Castleford, did some brilliant things, and his combination with Sam Tomkins offered particular promise. But then Chase clocked off horribly in the last quarter, making the man of the match award that had been determined after 60 minutes pretty embarrassing ? not least to Chase himself ? when it was announced shortly before the final hooter.
McNamara's other new recruits, Jack Reed and Chris Heighington, had less fluctuating, more solid debuts. But their presence in the England setup, alongside Gareth Ellis and Gareth Widdop ? two Yorkshiremen who have excelled in the National Rugby League this season ? does seem to have secured greater respect from both Australia and New Zealand.
England have the perfect chance to hone their combinations before Wembley as they face Wales in their first Four Nations game at Leigh on Saturday. It will be fascinating to see whether McNamara makes any changes.
3) A cheer in Provence
It is equally intriguing to speculate on the likely result should the Wales team sent out by Iestyn Harris on Saturday face the France side coached by his former Great Britain half-back partner Bobbie Goulding that pushed England so hard in Avignon. It was Wales's unexpected, and by all accounts thoroughly deserved, victory in Albi in last autumn's European Cup that earned this debut in the Four Nations at the expense of a France team who have been underachieving at international level for years.
The home team's performance in Provence merely confirmed that, but at least it gives Goulding the chance to go out on a high, assuming he and the French federation choose to move on at the end of his three-year contract after games against Scotland and Ireland in the next two weeks. The progress made by the Catalan Dragons over the past 12 months since the arrival of Trent Robinson has offered huge encouragement to the French ahead of the 2013 World Cup, in which they have been drawn in an attractive group with New Zealand, Samoa and Papua New Guinea ? and will surely now play at least one match in Avignon, after the success of Friday's fixture.
4) From the streets of Philadelphia ?
Now that the kick and clap has finished in New Zealand ? only joking, union folk, from this distance it's been a hugely impressive event, just a shame about the rugby ? it's quite exciting to think that the next rugby World Cup will be the league version in 2013. The prospect seems even more real, and appealing, following confirmation that the United States have qualified for the first time, with Italy shaping as favourites to join them as debutants if they beat Lebanon in Belgrade next weekend.
Both offer huge opportunities for the game, effectively articulated by the Americans' former Bradford Bulls coach Matthew Elliott in a preview of their last qualifier against Jamaica in the Philadelphia Inquirer. But there is not much time to capitalise before 2013. It is a major challenge for the International Federation, and the clubs of the Super League and especially the NRL. Do they have the vision and ambition to respond to a unique opportunity?
5) Vegas, Dubai ? or Headingley?
The evidence of the World Club Challenge would suggest probably not. Every year there are suggestions that the game may be played in Australia. Russell Crowe also came up with an imaginative scheme to stage a World Club Championship in Las Vegas. Now Manly, having been either unable or unwilling to follow through on initial suggestions that the Super League champions (Leeds) may finally be invited to Australia, have revived the idea of using Dubai as a lucrative halfway house. But still, nothing has actually been done, meaning that the game now looks likely to be played at Headingley, which should be a cracking occasion but is a damning indictment of limited ambition.
6) Saints in good shape
That is in stark contrast to the good folk of St Helens, who don't like blowing their own trumpet but have an impressive record of getting on with the job. They have again sent their best young players on a tour of Australia and maintained their 100% record with an impressive win against Cronulla last week, with the former stand-off Tommy Martyn clearly refusing to allow his new role as a coach to cramp his style off the field. Thatto Heath, one of the town's strongest amateur clubs, will also be flying the flag overseas this weekend as they represent the National Conference League against the cream of France's amateurs in a curtain-raiser before the France-Scotland international in Perpignan. Meanwhile the first team will move into their new stadium at the start of next season in an enviable financial position thanks to the long-serving chairman, Eamonn McManus, and Mike Coleman, a more recent addition to the board and another local boy made good in south-east Asia, in his case running hedge funds in Singapore whereas McManus was based in Hong Kong as the head of corporate finance for HSBC. Perhaps St Helens may be one of the few northern towns with a not wholly negative view of bankers. As ever, your comments on any or all the above are welcome below.
Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2011/oct/25/super-league-set-six-four-nations
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